Time: Sat Dec 13 17:48:31 1997 by primenet.com (8.8.8/8.8.5) with ESMTP id RAA08058 for <pmitch@smtp-local.primenet.com>; Sat, 13 Dec 1997 17:52:47 -0700 (MST) by smtp01.primenet.com (8.8.8/8.8.8) id RAA12891; Sat, 13 Dec 1997 17:33:29 -0700 (MST) via SMTP by smtp01.primenet.com, id smtpd012833; Sat Dec 13 17:33:22 1997 Date: Sat, 13 Dec 1997 17:32:59 -0800 To: Ken Beer <kbeer@kiski.net> From: Paul Andrew Mitchell [address in tool bar] Subject: SLS: Delphi at RAND (a corporation!) The Delphi Technique was debunked at the University of California, Irvine, when an unknown student of applied mathematics found a hidden "mirror" in their decision matrix, proving predictable bias in their otherwise innocuous but politically provocative methodology. Thus, proving once again, you can drag a dead horse to water, but the well may be dry, by the time you get there. This necessary result was mentioned briefly only in the last footnote, which nobody ever read anyway. /s/ Paul Mitchell, Candidate for Congress http://supremelaw.com At 05:44 PM 12/13/97 -0800, you wrote: >Here's aan example of the type of literature you can obtain fron the folks at >RAND. > >Sincerely, > >Ken > > > >DOCNO: R-1283-PR > >TITLE: Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting, and Group Process. > >AUTH: H. Sackman > >PAGES: 125, DATE: 1974 COST: $ 10.00 > >KEYS: Delphi method > >ABST: A critical analysis and evaluation of the Delphi technique, a >systematic method for eliciting >expert opinion on a variety of topics. The author examines the methodological >principles and key >assumptions of Delphi in the light of current standards for social >experimentation, test design, >sampling, use of experts, and interpretation of findings. He concludes that >conventional Delphi is an >unreliable and scientifically unvalidated technique in principle and probably >in practice. Except for its >possible value as an informal exercise for heuristic purposes, Delphi should >be replaced by >demonstrably superior, scientifically rigorous questionnaire techniques and >associated experimental >procedures using human subjects. Users are urged to work with >psychometrically trained social >scientists who can apply rigorous techniques tailored to specific needs. >Delphi should not be used >until its principles, methods, and fundamental applications can be >established experimentally as >scientifically tenable. 125 pp. Bibliog. > > > Add This Item to Order List | View/Change Order List | Place >Order > > >********************************************** >To subscribe or unsubscribe, email: > majordomo@majordomo.pobox.com >with the message: > subscribe ignition-point email@address >or > unsubscribe ignition-point email@address >********************************************** >http://www.telepath.com/believer >********************************************** > > =========================================================================== Paul Andrew Mitchell, Sui Juris : Counselor at Law, federal witness 01 B.A.: Political Science, UCLA; M.S.: Public Administration, U.C.Irvine 02 tel: (520) 320-1514: machine; fax: (520) 320-1256: 24-hour/day-night 03 email: [address in tool bar] : using Eudora Pro 3.0.3 on 586 CPU 04 website: http://supremelaw.com : visit the Supreme Law Library now 05 ship to: c/o 2509 N. Campbell, #1776 : this is free speech, at its best 06 Tucson, Arizona state : state zone, not the federal zone 07 Postal Zone 85719/tdc : USPS delays first class w/o this 08 _____________________________________: Law is authority in written words 09 As agents of the Most High, we came here to establish justice. We shall 10 not leave, until our mission is accomplished and justice reigns eternal. 11 ======================================================================== 12 [This text formatted on-screen in Courier 11, non-proportional spacing.] 13
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