Time: Sat Dec 13 17:32:58 1997
To: Ken Beer <kbeer@kiski.net>
From: Paul Andrew Mitchell [address in tool bar]
Subject: SLS: Delphi at RAND (a corporation!)
Bcc: sls, liberty lists

The Delphi Technique was debunked at the
University of California, Irvine, when
an unknown student of applied mathematics
found a hidden "mirror" in their decision
matrix, proving predictable bias in their
otherwise innocuous but politically
provocative methodology.  Thus, proving
once again, you can drag a dead horse to
water, but the well may be dry, by the 
time you get there.  This necessary result
was mentioned briefly only in the last
footnote, which nobody ever read anyway.

/s/ Paul Mitchell,
Candidate for Congress

At 05:44 PM 12/13/97 -0800, you wrote:
>Here's aan example of the type of literature you can obtain fron the folks at 
>DOCNO: R-1283-PR
>TITLE: Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting, and Group Process.
>AUTH: H. Sackman
>PAGES: 125,    DATE: 1974    COST: $ 10.00
>KEYS: Delphi method 
>ABST: A critical analysis and evaluation of the Delphi technique, a 
>systematic method for eliciting
>expert opinion on a variety of topics. The author examines the methodological 
>principles and key
>assumptions of Delphi in the light of current standards for social 
>experimentation, test design,
>sampling, use of experts, and interpretation of findings. He concludes that 
>conventional Delphi is an
>unreliable and scientifically unvalidated technique in principle and probably 
>in practice. Except for its
>possible value as an informal exercise for heuristic purposes, Delphi should 
>be replaced by
>demonstrably superior, scientifically rigorous questionnaire techniques and 
>associated experimental
>procedures using human subjects. Users are urged to work with 
>psychometrically trained social
>scientists who can apply rigorous techniques tailored to specific needs. 
>Delphi should not be used
>until its principles, methods, and fundamental applications can be 
>established experimentally as
>scientifically tenable. 125 pp. Bibliog. 
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